randomdatathoughts.

Data does the heavy lifting. The opinions are my own.

Analysis and takes on finance, real estate, technology, transportation, health — and whatever else is worth the numbers.

New thoughts, every few weeks — written by Jacob Smith · LinkedIn

Who actually gets denied a mortgage, and where

A full build using HMDA's public lending data — SQL for approval-rate patterns, Python for the cleanup nobody shows you, and a dashboard built for a credit officer, not a recruiter.

The channel that "works" depends on which model you trust

First-touch and last-touch attribution tell two different stories about the same campaign data. Here's what changes when you switch models — and what doesn't.

A quick look at why your transit app is always slightly wrong

Real-time arrival predictions are a forecasting problem wearing a UI. A short note on why "3 minutes away" is often a guess dressed up as a fact.