randomdatathoughts.

Notes on data, decisions, and the questions behind them.

A running notebook on finance, real estate, technology, transportation, and health — full analytics breakdowns sit alongside shorter, looser takes. Some posts come with a dashboard and a dataset. Some are just a thought worth writing down.

New thoughts, every few weeks — written by Jacob Smith · LinkedIn

Who actually gets denied a mortgage, and where

A full build using HMDA's public lending data — SQL for approval-rate patterns, Python for the cleanup nobody shows you, and a dashboard built for a credit officer, not a recruiter.

The channel that "works" depends on which model you trust

First-touch and last-touch attribution tell two different stories about the same campaign data. Here's what changes when you switch models — and what doesn't.

A quick look at why your transit app is always slightly wrong

Real-time arrival predictions are a forecasting problem wearing a UI. A short note on why "3 minutes away" is often a guess dressed up as a fact.